Nuclear Crossroads: The Return of Great Power Arms Competition Amidst a Fading Disarmament Agenda

In the shadow of rising geopolitical tensions, a new arms race is quietly unfolding—this time with more players, faster weapons, and fewer rules.

Once hailed as a diplomatic triumph, nuclear arms control is now unraveling. The United States, Russia, and China are investing billions in next-generation weapons. Treaties are expiring. Dialogues have stalled. And the risk of miscalculation is higher than at any time since the Cold War.

The world is witnessing a stark return to nuclear competition among major powers. With arms control frameworks collapsing and new technologies entering the battlefield, the global non-proliferation architecture is weakening at precisely the moment it is most needed.

Arms control agreements that once capped arsenals and built trust are vanishing. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is dead. The last major U.S.-Russia pact, New START, is hanging by a thread. And China, now seen as a strategic equal, has yet to enter any serious arms control dialogue.

“It’s like we’re running blind into a storm,” says Dr. Mira Owens, a senior fellow at Nuclear Watch. “The weapons are more advanced, the world is more divided, and the rules of the road are being shredded.”

I-Reviving the Global Nuclear Compact: Preparatory Meetings for the 2026 NPT Review Conference

As the global non-proliferation regime faces unprecedented stress, the preparatory process for the 2026 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in decades. Against the backdrop of renewed strategic competition, stagnating disarmament efforts, and heightened regional proliferation risks, the first two sessions of the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) meetings have underscored both deep divisions and a few glimmers of consensus.

• The NPT in Crisis—Yet Still Central

Despite its imperfections, the NPT remains the cornerstone of global nuclear governance. The treaty rests on three pillars:

1. Non-proliferation
2. Disarmament
3. Peaceful uses of nuclear energy

However, all three pillars are under strain. The 2022 Review Conference ended without consensus, and many states—particularly from the Global South—accuse the nuclear-armed states (NWS) of failing to meet their Article VI disarmament obligations. Meanwhile, geopolitical frictions are eroding the cooperative spirit needed to uphold the NPT’s normative authority.

• Preparatory Meetings: Where We Stand

First Session – Vienna, 2023

The first PrepCom exposed the predictable divides:

• Nuclear-weapon states (NWS) emphasized strategic stability and risk reduction, often portraying current arsenals as necessary for deterrence in an increasingly unstable world.
• Non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS)—especially those aligned with the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)—accused the NWS of backsliding on disarmament commitments.

Some technical discussions gained traction, including:

• Stockpile transparency
• Strengthening safeguards compliance
• Addressing North Korea’s ongoing nuclear buildup

Second Session – Geneva, 2024

By 2024, the tone was more urgent. Russia’s continued war in Ukraine and threats of nuclear use, coupled with China’s growing arsenal and the U.S. modernization program, led to sharper rhetoric.

II-The Strategic Reawakening

After decades of relative restraint, the three dominant nuclear states—the United States, Russia, and China—are once again expanding and modernizing their arsenals. Russia’s suspension of New START inspections, China’s rapid silo construction in western provinces, and the U.S. triad modernization all signal a departure from the post-Cold War norm of mutual reduction.

Several factors contribute to this shift:

• Strategic mistrust and ideological divergence, especially amid the Ukraine war and Indo-Pacific tensions.
• Emerging technologies such as hypersonics, AI, and dual-use space assets, which blur deterrence lines.
• Erosion of arms control institutions, notably the collapse of the INF Treaty and the uncertain fate of New START.

III-The Disarmament Malaise

Multilateral disarmament efforts are stagnating. The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) remains unsupported by nuclear states, while the NPT suffers from non-compliance and diplomatic fatigue. Meanwhile, regional proliferation risks intensify— From North Korea’s developments to European officials’ statements to create a nuclear umbrella and countries like Canada to expand enrichment facilities in the trade war with the US.

Without new leadership or incentives, the disarmament agenda risks irrelevance. The dissonance between nuclear-armed states’ actions and their NPT obligations undermines the credibility of the international system.

IV-Strategic Risks in a Tripolar World

The evolving nuclear order is increasingly tripolar, with China rising as a strategic peer. This three-way dynamic is inherently less stable than the U.S.-Russia duopoly. Crisis instability grows in environments lacking:

• Robust communication channels
• Crisis de-escalation mechanisms
• Shared arms control norms

The absence of trilateral frameworks makes the risk of miscalculation dangerously high.

V-Policy Recommendations

To prevent a descent into unchecked arms racing, policymakers must act on multiple fronts:

1. Renew Bilateral Commitments: The U.S. and Russia should agree to extend or replace New START before its expiration in 2026.
2. Initiate U.S.-China Strategic Dialogue: Even limited transparency can build trust and stabilize deterrence.
3. Elevate Nuclear Risk Reduction: States must pursue interim steps like no-first-use pledges, de-alerting, and crisis hotlines.
4. Reinvigorate Disarmament Forums: The NPT Review Conference must be revitalized with tangible deliverables and inclusive diplomacy.
5. Adapt Arms Control to New Tech: Begin codifying norms around autonomous weapons, space-based systems, and dual-use AI.

Conclusion

The world is at a nuclear crossroads. The choice is between escalating competition or renewed cooperation. The collapse of old agreements and the absence of new guardrails heighten the risk of arms competition spiraling out of control. Only renewed diplomatic urgency, coupled with an adaptive arms control mindset, can steer us away from the brink. What happens in the next few years will shape global security for generations to come.